Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
374.70%
decreased by 23.57%
1 Week
331.59%
decreased by 66.68%
1 Month
269.34%
decreased by 128.93%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-lifev = 200.00 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 214.2076 | 2.63*** |
| αscore | 0.2921 | 0.91 |
| βpersistence | 0.7815 | 4.80*** |
| νDF | 200.0000 | 0.01 |
0.782
Persistence3d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 214.2076 | 2.63*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.2921 | 0.91 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.7815 | 4.80*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 200.0000 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.782
Half-life:
3 days
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