V-Lab
Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
185.91%
increased by 22.90%
1 Week
204.92%
increased by 41.91%
1 Month
224.30%
increased by 61.29%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-lifev = 200.00 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 214.9814 | 2.82*** |
| αARCH | 0.2667 | 0.82 |
| βGARCH | 0.7592 | 3.64*** |
| νDF | 200.0000 | 0.01 |
0.759
Persistence3d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 214.9814 | 2.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2667 | 0.82 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7592 | 3.64*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 200.0000 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.759
Half-life:
3 days
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