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Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

179.96%

increased by 10.49%

1 Week

199.22%

increased by 29.75%

1 Month

219.46%

increased by 49.99%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC

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graph of Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-lifev = 200.00 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst207.2120
2.89***
αARCH0.2722
0.86
βGARCH0.7680
4.24***
νDF200.0000
0.01

0.768

Persistence

3d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

207.2120
2.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2722
0.86
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7680
4.24***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

200.0000
0.01

Persistence:

0.768

Half-life:

3 days