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Canary Litecoin Etf GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

61.02%

decreased by 1.84%

1 Week

61.70%

decreased by 1.16%

1 Month

64.28%

increased by 1.42%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Canary Litecoin Etf GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 27, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 147 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~147 daysv = 5.53 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run50.5622
1.44
αscore0.1011
4.19***
βpersistence0.9953
258.59***
νDF5.5293
0.85

0.995

Persistence

147d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

50.5622
1.44
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1011
4.19***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9953
258.59***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.5293
0.85

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

147 days