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Canary Litecoin Etf GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

40.18%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Week

41.02%

increased by 0.76%

1 Month

44.17%

increased by 3.91%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Canary Litecoin Etf GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 27, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 233 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~233 daysv = 6.01 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst52.2437
1.58
αARCH0.1017
3.90***
βGARCH0.9970
324.24***
νDF6.0062
0.77

0.997

Persistence

233d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

52.2437
1.58
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1017
3.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9970
324.24***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.0062
0.77

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

233 days