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V-Lab

Canary Litecoin Etf GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

28.15%

increased by 3.42%

1 Week

28.84%

increased by 4.11%

1 Month

31.41%

increased by 6.68%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Canary Litecoin Etf GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 27, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 443 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

52.7986
6.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1030
15.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9984
1,324.19***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.1102
2.30**

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

443 days