V-Lab
Canary Litecoin Etf GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
40.18%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
41.02%
increased by 0.76%
1 Month
44.17%
increased by 3.91%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 27, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 233 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~233 daysv = 6.01 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 52.2437 | 1.58 |
| αARCH | 0.1017 | 3.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9970 | 324.24*** |
| νDF | 6.0062 | 0.77 |
0.997
Persistence233d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 52.2437 | 1.58 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1017 | 3.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9970 | 324.24*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0062 | 0.77 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
233 days
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