V-Lab
Canary Litecoin Etf GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
51.38%
1 Week
52.11%
1 Month
54.90%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 27, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 186 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 51.3380 | 1.54 |
| αARCH | 0.1038 | 3.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9963 | 298.91*** |
| νDF | 6.0258 | 0.76 |
0.996
Persistence186d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 51.3380 | 1.54 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1038 | 3.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9963 | 298.91*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0258 | 0.76 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
186 days
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