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Canary Litecoin Etf GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

51.38%

increased by 5.51%

1 Week

52.11%

increased by 6.24%

1 Month

54.90%

increased by 9.03%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Canary Litecoin Etf GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 27, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 186 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~186 daysv = 6.03 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst51.3380
1.54
αARCH0.1038
3.93***
βGARCH0.9963
298.91***
νDF6.0258
0.76

0.996

Persistence

186d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

51.3380
1.54
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1038
3.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9963
298.91***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.0258
0.76

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

186 days