V-Lab
Canary Litecoin Etf GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
28.15%
increased by 3.42%
1 Week
28.84%
increased by 4.11%
1 Month
31.41%
increased by 6.68%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 27, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 443 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 52.7986 | 6.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1030 | 15.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9984 | 1,324.19*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.1102 | 2.30** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
443 days
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