V-Lab
Canary Litecoin Etf GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
37.43%
decreased by 2.07%
1 Week
38.18%
decreased by 1.32%
1 Month
41.02%
increased by 1.52%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 27, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 263 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 48.7239 | 5.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0943 | 14.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9974 | 1,010.50*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.3101 | 1.75* |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
263 days
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