V-Lab
Canary Litecoin Etf Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
89.20%
decreased by 7.26%
1 Week
88.09%
decreased by 8.37%
1 Month
84.21%
decreased by 12.25%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 27, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 27 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3221 | 3.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.1516 | 1.96* |
| βGARCH | 0.8230 | 11.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.4667 | 0.30 |
0.975
Persistence27d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3221 | 3.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1516 | 1.96* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8230 | 11.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.4667 | 0.30 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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