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Canary Litecoin Etf Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

89.20%

decreased by 7.26%

1 Week

88.09%

decreased by 8.37%

1 Month

84.21%

decreased by 12.25%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC

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Date Range:

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to

6M ·

All

graph of Canary Litecoin Etf S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 27, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 27 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3221
3.90***
αARCH0.1516
1.96*
βGARCH0.8230
11.35***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.4667
0.30

0.975

Persistence

27d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3221
3.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1516
1.96*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8230
11.35***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.4667
0.30

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

27 days