iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
70.22%
increased by 4.53%
1 Week
68.71%
increased by 3.02%
1 Month
63.33%
decreased by 2.36%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2000 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.8740 | 7.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.0906 | 9.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8830 | 75.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0199 | 1.94* |
| γ2 | -0.0307 | -1.87* |
| γ3 | 0.0336 | 2.57** |
| γ4 | -0.0340 | -3.66*** |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8740 | 7.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0906 | 9.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8830 | 75.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0199 | 1.94* |
| γ2 | -0.0307 | -1.87* |
| γ3 | 0.0336 | 2.57** |
| γ4 | -0.0340 | -3.66*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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