V-Lab
iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
33.33%
decreased by 1.72%
1 Week
33.04%
decreased by 2.01%
1 Month
32.05%
decreased by 3.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8665 | 8.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0879 | 9.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8849 | 74.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0206 | 1.98** |
| γ2 | -0.0315 | -1.89* |
| γ3 | 0.0330 | 2.49** |
| γ4 | -0.0325 | -3.49*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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