iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
74.27%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
73.68%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
71.39%
decreased by 2.91%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2000 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 201% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~72 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 201% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0333 | 4.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.0393 | 3.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9115 | 116.19*** |
| γleverage | 0.0791 | 3.83*** |
0.990
Persistence72d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0333 | 4.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0393 | 3.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9115 | 116.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0791 | 3.83*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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