V-Lab
iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
23.65%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
23.76%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Month
24.17%
decreased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 186% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 186% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0334 | 4.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.0402 | 3.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9119 | 115.11*** |
| γleverage | 0.0750 | 3.80*** |
0.990
Persistence66d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0334 | 4.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0402 | 3.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9119 | 115.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0750 | 3.80*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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