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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

39.30%

decreased by 1.67%

1 Week

39.12%

decreased by 1.85%

1 Month

38.44%

decreased by 2.53%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 23, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 189% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0317
19.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0388
15.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9147
470.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0735
15.34***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

71 days