V-Lab
iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
34.68%
decreased by 1.41%
1 Week
34.57%
decreased by 1.52%
1 Month
34.16%
decreased by 1.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 188% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0325 | 19.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0396 | 15.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9133 | 462.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0743 | 15.22*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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