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V-Lab

Tradr 2x Long USAR Daily ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

137.44%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Week

136.49%

decreased by 1.43%

1 Month

132.77%

decreased by 5.15%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2x Long USAR Daily ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~99 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
0.00
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9930
1.07
γleverage0.0000
0.00

0.993

Persistence

99d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9930
1.07
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

99 days