Tradr 2x Long USAR Daily ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
137.44%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
136.49%
decreased by 1.43%
1 Month
132.77%
decreased by 5.15%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~99 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9930 | 1.07 |
| γleverage | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.993
Persistence99d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9930 | 1.07 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
99 days
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