V-Lab
Tradr 2x Long USAR Daily ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
143.92%
decreased by 17.03%
1 Week
161.95%
increased by 1.00%
1 Month
193.54%
increased by 32.59%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 15.0000 | 0.81 |
| αARCH | 0.3084 | 2.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5789 | 20.24*** |
| γleverage | 4.5939 | 1.45 |
0.887
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.0000 | 0.81 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3084 | 2.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5789 | 20.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 4.5939 | 1.45 |
Persistence:
0.887
Half-life:
6 days
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