V-Lab
Renaissance International IPO ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
23.86%
increased by 2.44%
1 Week
23.88%
increased by 2.46%
1 Month
23.93%
increased by 2.51%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 7, 2014 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.54) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0835 | 13.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1199 | 28.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8287 | 174.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5367 | 12.22*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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