V-Lab
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
17.51%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
17.65%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
18.12%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.69) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0810 | 38.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8953 | 365.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6930 | 30.47*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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