State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
18.63%
increased by 0.71%
1 Week
18.72%
increased by 0.80%
1 Month
19.04%
increased by 1.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 106% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 106% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0330 | 6.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.1186 | 7.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7996 | 64.03*** |
| γleverage | 0.1259 | 4.22*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0330 | 6.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1186 | 7.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7996 | 64.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1259 | 4.22*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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