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State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

18.63%

increased by 0.71%

1 Week

18.72%

increased by 0.80%

1 Month

19.04%

increased by 1.12%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 106% more than equivalent positive returns.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 106% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0330
6.09***
αARCH0.1186
7.30***
βGARCH0.7996
64.03***
γleverage0.1259
4.22***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0330
6.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1186
7.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7996
64.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1259
4.22***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days