Invesco DB Agriculture Fund Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
12.43%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
12.49%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
12.72%
increased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 109 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0069 | 17.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1209 | 27.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8781 | 326.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0107 | -1.66* |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
109 days
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