V-Lab
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12.47%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
12.53%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
12.76%
decreased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 321 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.98 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9841 | 7.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0534 | 40.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9978 | 2,427.83*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.9766 | 4.34*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
321 days
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