Invesco DB Agriculture Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
11.21%
1 Week
11.28%
1 Month
11.54%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 354 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 11.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.1166 | 1.74* |
| αscore | 0.0544 | 10.10*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9980 | 584.33*** |
| νDF | 11.1371 | 0.89 |
0.998
Persistence354d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.1166 | 1.74* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0544 | 10.10*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9980 | 584.33*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 11.1371 | 0.89 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
354 days
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