V-Lab
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
15.22%
1 Week
15.26%
1 Month
15.41%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 357 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 11.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.1483 | 1.74* |
| αARCH | 0.0545 | 10.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9981 | 587.44*** |
| νDF | 11.1833 | 0.89 |
0.998
Persistence357d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1483 | 1.74* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0545 | 10.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9981 | 587.44*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 11.1833 | 0.89 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
357 days
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