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Invesco DB Agriculture Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

11.83%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Week

11.90%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Month

12.15%

decreased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Agriculture Fund GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 354 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 11.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~354 daysv = 11.14 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.1166
1.74*
αARCH0.0544
10.10***
βGARCH0.9980
584.33***
νDF11.1371
0.89

0.998

Persistence

354d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1166
1.74*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0544
10.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9980
584.33***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

11.1371
0.89

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

354 days