V-Lab
Morgan Stanley PHY SM MD ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
16.90%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
17.21%
increased by 0.27%
1 Month
18.05%
increased by 1.11%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5353 | 3.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0419 | 3.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9451 | 60.27*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.8214 | 0.57 |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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