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V-Lab

Morgan Stanley PHY SM MD ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

17.90%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Week

18.12%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Month

18.70%

increased by 0.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

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graph of Morgan Stanley PHY SM MD ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 9, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5511
3.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0401
3.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9414
48.55***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.9683
0.48

Persistence:

0.941

Half-life:

11 days