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V-Lab

Morgan Stanley PHY SM MD ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

17.87%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

18.05%

increased by 0.15%

1 Month

18.56%

increased by 0.66%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Morgan Stanley PHY SM MD ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 9, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5176
3.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0399
3.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9445
52.28***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.9877
0.50

Persistence:

0.944

Half-life:

12 days