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V-Lab

Morgan Stanley PHY SM MD ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

16.91%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

17.10%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

17.66%

increased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Morgan Stanley PHY SM MD ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 9, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8725
203.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1196
13.10***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1436
0.65
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0221
1.91*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8752
5.34***

Persistence:

0.932

Half-life:

10 days