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V-Lab

Morgan Stanley PHY SM MD ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

15.57%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Week

16.04%

increased by 0.15%

1 Month

17.20%

increased by 1.31%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Morgan Stanley PHY SM MD ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 9, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8550
84.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1352
13.12***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1421
0.56
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0092
0.36
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8908
4.92***

Persistence:

0.923

Half-life:

9 days