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V-Lab

Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

17.49%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Week

21.02%

increased by 3.04%

1 Month

24.35%

increased by 6.37%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 13, 2023 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3830
10.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2956
5.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0859
-1.49
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.3305
0.71
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5697
1.12
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.3988
0.64

Persistence:

0.636

Half-life:

2 days