V-Lab
Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
18.15%
1 Week
20.52%
1 Month
20.97%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5220 | 13.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4783 | -10.97*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3510 | 0.52 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7354 | 0.61 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2443 | 0.24 |
Persistence:
0.283
Half-life:
1 days
Other Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs