V-Lab
Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
17.49%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
21.02%
increased by 3.04%
1 Month
24.35%
increased by 6.37%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2023 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3830 | 10.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2956 | 5.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0859 | -1.49 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3305 | 0.71 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5697 | 1.12 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.3988 | 0.64 |
Persistence:
0.636
Half-life:
2 days
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