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V-Lab

Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

18.15%

increased by 0.11%

1 Week

20.52%

increased by 2.48%

1 Month

20.97%

increased by 2.93%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 13, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5220
13.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.4783
-10.97***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.3510
0.52
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7354
0.61
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.2443
0.24

Persistence:

0.283

Half-life:

1 days