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V-Lab

Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

18.19%

decreased by 0.91%

1 Week

18.57%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

20.04%

increased by 0.94%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 13, 2023 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0280
4.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1099
3.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8859
99.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0084
0.20

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-