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iShares Russell 2000 ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

17.21%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

17.46%

increased by 0.21%

1 Month

18.29%

increased by 1.04%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC

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graph of iShares Russell 2000 ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0443
4.42***
αARCH0.0127
1.52
βGARCH0.8994
105.81***
γleverage0.1305
5.58***

0.977

Persistence

30d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0443
4.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0127
1.52
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8994
105.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1305
5.58***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days