iShares Russell 2000 ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
16.24%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Week
16.56%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
17.60%
increased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0450 | 17.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0125 | 5.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8988 | 419.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1316 | 22.26*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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