iShares Russell 2000 ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
19.79%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
19.90%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Month
20.28%
decreased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0442 | 4.41*** |
| αARCH | 0.0128 | 1.54 |
| βGARCH | 0.8994 | 105.92*** |
| γleverage | 0.1302 | 5.57*** |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0442 | 4.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0128 | 1.54 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8994 | 105.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1302 | 5.57*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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