V-Lab
iShares Russell 2000 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
17.14%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
17.88%
increased by 0.57%
1 Month
20.08%
increased by 2.77%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2127 | 8.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0899 | 8.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8773 | 69.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0278 | 2.89*** |
| γ2 | -0.0500 | -3.40*** |
| γ3 | 0.0472 | 4.05*** |
| γ4 | -0.0368 | -4.37*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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