iShares Russell 2000 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
30.55%
increased by 2.65%
1 Week
30.30%
increased by 2.40%
1 Month
29.46%
increased by 1.56%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2070 | 8.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.0895 | 8.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8790 | 71.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0253 | 2.63*** |
| γ2 | -0.0455 | -3.12*** |
| γ3 | 0.0434 | 3.80*** |
| γ4 | -0.0342 | -4.18*** |
0.968
Persistence22d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2070 | 8.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0895 | 8.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8790 | 71.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0253 | 2.63*** |
| γ2 | -0.0455 | -3.12*** |
| γ3 | 0.0434 | 3.80*** |
| γ4 | -0.0342 | -4.18*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
22 days
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