V-Lab
iShares Russell 2000 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
17.04%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
17.73%
increased by 0.39%
1 Month
19.81%
increased by 2.47%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2099 | 8.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.0896 | 8.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8783 | 70.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0267 | 2.76*** |
| γ2 | -0.0479 | -3.26*** |
| γ3 | 0.0453 | 3.90*** |
| γ4 | -0.0353 | -4.24*** |
0.968
Persistence21d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2099 | 8.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0896 | 8.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8783 | 70.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0267 | 2.76*** |
| γ2 | -0.0479 | -3.26*** |
| γ3 | 0.0453 | 3.90*** |
| γ4 | -0.0353 | -4.24*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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