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iShares Russell 2000 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

17.05%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

17.72%

increased by 0.57%

1 Month

19.77%

increased by 2.62%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC

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graph of iShares Russell 2000 ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2078
8.54***
αARCH0.0894
8.65***
βGARCH0.8790
71.44***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0259
2.68***
γ2-0.0466
-3.17***
γ30.0440
3.80***
γ4-0.0343
-4.13***

0.968

Persistence

22d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2078
8.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0894
8.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8790
71.44***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0259
2.68***
γ2-0.0466
-3.17***
γ30.0440
3.80***
γ4-0.0343
-4.13***

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

22 days