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V-Lab

iShares Russell 2000 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

17.04%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Week

17.73%

increased by 0.39%

1 Month

19.81%

increased by 2.47%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares Russell 2000 ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2099
8.62***
αARCH0.0896
8.64***
βGARCH0.8783
70.82***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0267
2.76***
γ2-0.0479
-3.26***
γ30.0453
3.90***
γ4-0.0353
-4.24***

0.968

Persistence

21d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2099
8.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0896
8.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8783
70.82***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0267
2.76***
γ2-0.0479
-3.26***
γ30.0453
3.90***
γ4-0.0353
-4.24***

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

21 days