V-Lab
iShares Russell 2000 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
17.71%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
18.38%
increased by 0.37%
1 Month
20.38%
increased by 2.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2123 | 8.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0897 | 8.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8777 | 70.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0274 | 2.85*** |
| γ2 | -0.0492 | -3.36*** |
| γ3 | 0.0465 | 4.01*** |
| γ4 | -0.0363 | -4.34*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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