V-Lab
iShares Russell 2000 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
17.05%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
17.72%
increased by 0.57%
1 Month
19.77%
increased by 2.62%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2078 | 8.54*** |
| αARCH | 0.0894 | 8.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8790 | 71.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0259 | 2.68*** |
| γ2 | -0.0466 | -3.17*** |
| γ3 | 0.0440 | 3.80*** |
| γ4 | -0.0343 | -4.13*** |
0.968
Persistence22d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2078 | 8.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0894 | 8.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8790 | 71.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0259 | 2.68*** |
| γ2 | -0.0466 | -3.17*** |
| γ3 | 0.0440 | 3.80*** |
| γ4 | -0.0343 | -4.13*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
22 days
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