V-Lab
Leverage Shares 2X Long GLW Daily ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
191.95%
decreased by 7.81%
1 Week
190.20%
decreased by 9.56%
1 Month
186.22%
decreased by 13.54%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8997 | 5.13*** |
| αARCH | 0.0601 | 0.95 |
| βGARCH | 0.8440 | 4.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.8935 | -0.59 |
0.904
Persistence7d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8997 | 5.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0601 | 0.95 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8440 | 4.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.8935 | -0.59 |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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