V-Lab
Leverage Shares 2X Long GLW Daily ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
162.41%
decreased by 4.01%
1 Week
165.83%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Month
174.36%
increased by 7.94%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. The volatility power δ = 0.97 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8378 | 2.16** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0414 | 3.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8906 | 41.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -3.57*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9688 | 3.89*** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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