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V-Lab

Motley Fool Innovative Growth Factor ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

20.04%

increased by 1.65%

1 Week

19.42%

increased by 1.03%

1 Month

18.45%

increased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Motley Fool Innovative Growth Factor ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 9, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1717
6.52***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0606
5.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8026
23.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
632.10***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
4.09***

Persistence:

0.838

Half-life:

4 days