Motley Fool Innovative Growth Factor ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
16.30%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
16.63%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
17.28%
increased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9093 | 4.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0596 | 0.99 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8297 | 3.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.6491 | -0.53 |
Persistence:
0.889
Half-life:
6 days
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