V-Lab
Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
137.75%
increased by 0.08%
1 Week
137.90%
increased by 0.23%
1 Month
138.45%
increased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 11, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0914 | 2.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9905 | 0.48 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 130.0809 | 0.37 |
| γ2 | -227.9597 | -1.26 |
| γ3 | 133.6680 | 0.81 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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