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V-Lab
V-Lab

Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

241.87%

increased by 85.84%

1 Week

239.49%

increased by 83.46%

1 Month

232.40%

increased by 76.37%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 11, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9462
2.81***
αARCH0.1086
1.42
βGARCH0.8419
6.05***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.7762
-0.36

0.950

Persistence

14d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9462
2.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1086
1.42
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8419
6.05***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.7762
-0.36

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

14 days