Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
154.46%
increased by 0.29%
1 Week
160.80%
increased by 6.63%
1 Month
176.05%
increased by 21.88%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 11, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9420 | 3.48*** |
| αARCH | 0.0751 | 1.18 |
| βGARCH | 0.8539 | 5.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.3823 | -0.28 |
0.929
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9420 | 3.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0751 | 1.18 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8539 | 5.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.3823 | -0.28 |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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