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V-Lab

Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

181.28%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

181.28%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

181.28%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 11, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4200
2.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9189
1.51
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1274.6785
2.74***
γ2-413.8540
-2.63***
γ3176.7370
1.91*
γ4-37.7597
-0.73

Persistence:

0.919

Half-life:

8 days