Skip to main content
V-Lab

Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

137.75%

increased by 0.08%

1 Week

137.90%

increased by 0.23%

1 Month

138.45%

increased by 0.78%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 11, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0914
2.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9905
0.48
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1130.0809
0.37
γ2-227.9597
-1.26
γ3133.6680
0.81

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

72 days