V-Lab
Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
181.28%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
181.28%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
181.28%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 11, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4200 | 2.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9189 | 1.51 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 274.6785 | 2.74*** |
| γ2 | -413.8540 | -2.63*** |
| γ3 | 176.7370 | 1.91* |
| γ4 | -37.7597 | -0.73 |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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