V-Lab
Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
177.74%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
177.74%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
177.74%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 11, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4536 | 2.37** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8685 | 1.18 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 307.3441 | 4.47*** |
| γ2 | -456.1528 | -3.90*** |
| γ3 | 185.6388 | 2.07** |
| γ4 | -36.4318 | -0.67 |
Persistence:
0.869
Half-life:
5 days
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