V-Lab
Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
200.05%
decreased by 2.89%
1 Week
201.75%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Month
206.12%
increased by 3.18%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 11, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8624 | 3.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.0379 | 0.69 |
| βGARCH | 0.8939 | 4.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.9792 | -0.66 |
0.932
Persistence10d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8624 | 3.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0379 | 0.69 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8939 | 4.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.9792 | -0.66 |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
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