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Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

154.46%

increased by 0.29%

1 Week

160.80%

increased by 6.63%

1 Month

176.05%

increased by 21.88%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 11, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9420
3.48***
αARCH0.0751
1.18
βGARCH0.8539
5.44***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.3823
-0.28

0.929

Persistence

9d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9420
3.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0751
1.18
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8539
5.44***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.3823
-0.28

Persistence:

0.929

Half-life:

9 days