V-Lab
Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
241.87%
increased by 85.84%
1 Week
239.49%
increased by 83.46%
1 Month
232.40%
increased by 76.37%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 11, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9462 | 2.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.1086 | 1.42 |
| βGARCH | 0.8419 | 6.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.7762 | -0.36 |
0.950
Persistence14d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9462 | 2.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1086 | 1.42 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8419 | 6.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.7762 | -0.36 |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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