SPDR Gold Shares Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
19.95%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
19.91%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
19.75%
decreased by 0.72%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2004 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 65 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1498 | 7.47*** |
| αARCH | 0.0603 | 4.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9291 | 72.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0006 | 1.21 |
0.989
Persistence65d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1498 | 7.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0603 | 4.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9291 | 72.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0006 | 1.21 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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