SPDR Gold Shares Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
25.08%
increased by 0.26%
1 Week
24.95%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
24.50%
decreased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2004 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 69 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1523 | 7.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.0599 | 4.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9300 | 74.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0005 | 1.12 |
0.990
Persistence69d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1523 | 7.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0599 | 4.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9300 | 74.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0005 | 1.12 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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