V-Lab
SPDR Gold Shares Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
26.13%
increased by 0.03%
1 Week
25.98%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
25.43%
decreased by 0.67%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 65 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1549 | 7.40*** |
| αARCH | 0.0610 | 4.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9285 | 72.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0006 | 1.19 |
0.989
Persistence65d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1549 | 7.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0610 | 4.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9285 | 72.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0006 | 1.19 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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