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V-Lab

SPDR Gold Shares Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

22.82%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Week

22.72%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Month

22.35%

decreased by 1.12%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SPDR Gold Shares S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2004 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 63 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1528
7.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0612
4.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9279
71.79***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0006
1.25

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

63 days