iShares MSCI France ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.69%
increased by 0.12%
1 Week
16.19%
increased by 0.62%
1 Month
17.73%
increased by 2.16%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1063 | 5.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1110 | 8.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8569 | 62.85*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0283 | -1.69* |
| γ2 | 0.0634 | 2.62*** |
| γ3 | -0.0777 | -4.78*** |
| γ4 | 0.0773 | 4.74*** |
| γ5 | -0.0457 | -3.95*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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