V-Lab
iShares MSCI France ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
12.88%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
13.48%
increased by 0.19%
1 Month
15.17%
increased by 1.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1416 | 5.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1115 | 8.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8483 | 57.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0096 | 0.19 |
| γ2 | -0.0607 | -0.79 |
| γ3 | 0.1616 | 3.14*** |
| γ4 | -0.2162 | -5.06*** |
| γ5 | 0.1184 | 2.87*** |
| γ6 | 0.0397 | 0.87 |
| γ7 | -0.0853 | -1.81* |
| γ8 | 0.0404 | 1.19 |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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