State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
29.14%
decreased by 0.92%
1 Week
29.46%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Month
30.65%
increased by 0.59%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~87 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8786 | 4.19*** |
| αARCH | 0.0745 | 6.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9176 | 81.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0010 | -1.13 |
0.992
Persistence87d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8786 | 4.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0745 | 6.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9176 | 81.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0010 | -1.13 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
87 days
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