V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
38.51%
decreased by 1.38%
1 Week
38.19%
decreased by 1.70%
1 Month
37.14%
decreased by 2.75%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7371 | 2.34** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0820 | 5.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8833 | 44.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0088 | 0.04 |
| γ2 | -0.1274 | -0.47 |
| γ3 | 0.4251 | 3.82*** |
| γ4 | -0.7444 | -3.68*** |
| γ5 | 0.8524 | 2.99*** |
| γ6 | -0.7184 | -3.25*** |
| γ7 | 0.4230 | 2.96*** |
| γ8 | -0.1248 | -1.21 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
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