State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
28.77%
decreased by 1.12%
1 Week
29.08%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Month
30.07%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7427 | 2.37** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0818 | 5.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8838 | 44.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0164 | 0.08 |
| γ2 | -0.1433 | -0.53 |
| γ3 | 0.4437 | 3.83*** |
| γ4 | -0.7612 | -3.59*** |
| γ5 | 0.8579 | 2.94*** |
| γ6 | -0.7099 | -3.15*** |
| γ7 | 0.4052 | 2.75*** |
| γ8 | -0.1099 | -1.01 |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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