V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
26.06%
increased by 0.31%
1 Week
26.54%
increased by 0.79%
1 Month
28.04%
increased by 2.29%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7436 | 2.40** |
| αARCH | 0.0739 | 5.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8948 | 47.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0064 | 0.03 |
| γ2 | -0.1146 | -0.43 |
| γ3 | 0.3990 | 3.73*** |
| γ4 | -0.7158 | -3.81*** |
| γ5 | 0.8351 | 3.05*** |
| γ6 | -0.7194 | -3.32*** |
| γ7 | 0.4369 | 3.09*** |
| γ8 | -0.1365 | -1.35 |
0.969
Persistence22d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7436 | 2.40** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0739 | 5.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8948 | 47.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0064 | 0.03 |
| γ2 | -0.1146 | -0.43 |
| γ3 | 0.3990 | 3.73*** |
| γ4 | -0.7158 | -3.81*** |
| γ5 | 0.8351 | 3.05*** |
| γ6 | -0.7194 | -3.32*** |
| γ7 | 0.4369 | 3.09*** |
| γ8 | -0.1365 | -1.35 |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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