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State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

28.74%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Week

29.08%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Month

30.31%

increased by 0.80%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC

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graph of State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~87 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8784
4.17***
αARCH0.0747
6.36***
βGARCH0.9174
81.61***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0010
-1.13

0.992

Persistence

87d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8784
4.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0747
6.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9174
81.61***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0010
-1.13

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

87 days