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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

17.67%

decreased by 0.76%

1 Week

17.98%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Month

18.91%

increased by 0.48%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC

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graph of Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 10, 1999 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1254
7.11***
αARCH0.0968
9.15***
βGARCH0.8678
66.25***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.2377
-6.64***
γ20.3932
7.40***
γ3-0.2369
-6.23***
γ40.1190
2.95***
γ5-0.0211
-0.48
γ6-0.0351
-0.83
γ70.0190
0.63

0.965

Persistence

19d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1254
7.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0968
9.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8678
66.25***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.2377
-6.64***
γ20.3932
7.40***
γ3-0.2369
-6.23***
γ40.1190
2.95***
γ5-0.0211
-0.48
γ6-0.0351
-0.83
γ70.0190
0.63

Persistence:

0.965

Half-life:

19 days