Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
22.81%
increased by 0.78%
1 Week
22.75%
increased by 0.72%
1 Month
22.55%
increased by 0.52%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1146 | 7.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0967 | 9.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8683 | 66.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2443 | -6.70*** |
| γ2 | 0.4027 | 7.43*** |
| γ3 | -0.2401 | -6.12*** |
| γ4 | 0.1180 | 2.83*** |
| γ5 | -0.0188 | -0.42 |
| γ6 | -0.0352 | -0.81 |
| γ7 | 0.0171 | 0.55 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
Other Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs