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V-Lab

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

20.67%

decreased by 1.06%

1 Week

20.76%

decreased by 0.97%

1 Month

21.03%

decreased by 0.70%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 10, 1999 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1181
7.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0966
9.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8684
66.29***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.2416
-6.66***
γ20.3987
7.41***
γ3-0.2389
-6.16***
γ40.1187
2.88***
γ5-0.0202
-0.46
γ6-0.0342
-0.80
γ70.0170
0.55

Persistence:

0.965

Half-life:

19 days