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V-Lab

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

15.78%

decreased by 0.58%

1 Week

16.24%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

17.65%

increased by 1.29%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 10, 1999 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1229
7.09***
αARCH0.0969
9.14***
βGARCH0.8678
66.20***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.2396
-6.65***
γ20.3959
7.40***
γ3-0.2378
-6.19***
γ40.1186
2.91***
γ5-0.0201
-0.46
γ6-0.0359
-0.84
γ70.0195
0.63

0.965

Persistence

19d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1229
7.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0969
9.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8678
66.20***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.2396
-6.65***
γ20.3959
7.40***
γ3-0.2378
-6.19***
γ40.1186
2.91***
γ5-0.0201
-0.46
γ6-0.0359
-0.84
γ70.0195
0.63

Persistence:

0.965

Half-life:

19 days