V-Lab
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
17.67%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Week
17.98%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Month
18.91%
increased by 0.48%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 1999 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1254 | 7.11*** |
| αARCH | 0.0968 | 9.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8678 | 66.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2377 | -6.64*** |
| γ2 | 0.3932 | 7.40*** |
| γ3 | -0.2369 | -6.23*** |
| γ4 | 0.1190 | 2.95*** |
| γ5 | -0.0211 | -0.48 |
| γ6 | -0.0351 | -0.83 |
| γ7 | 0.0190 | 0.63 |
0.965
Persistence19d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1254 | 7.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0968 | 9.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8678 | 66.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2377 | -6.64*** |
| γ2 | 0.3932 | 7.40*** |
| γ3 | -0.2369 | -6.23*** |
| γ4 | 0.1190 | 2.95*** |
| γ5 | -0.0211 | -0.48 |
| γ6 | -0.0351 | -0.83 |
| γ7 | 0.0190 | 0.63 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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