V-Lab
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
20.67%
decreased by 1.06%
1 Week
20.76%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Month
21.03%
decreased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 1999 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1181 | 7.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0966 | 9.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8684 | 66.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2416 | -6.66*** |
| γ2 | 0.3987 | 7.41*** |
| γ3 | -0.2389 | -6.16*** |
| γ4 | 0.1187 | 2.88*** |
| γ5 | -0.0202 | -0.46 |
| γ6 | -0.0342 | -0.80 |
| γ7 | 0.0170 | 0.55 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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