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V-Lab

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

21.25%

decreased by 1.07%

1 Week

21.30%

decreased by 1.02%

1 Month

21.43%

decreased by 0.89%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 10, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1011
6.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0968
9.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8683
66.24***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.2456
-6.70***
γ20.4042
7.43***
γ3-0.2406
-6.14***
γ40.1186
2.86***
γ5-0.0191
-0.43
γ6-0.0355
-0.82
γ70.0177
0.57

Persistence:

0.965

Half-life:

20 days