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V-Lab

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

23.82%

decreased by 1.17%

1 Week

24.02%

decreased by 0.97%

1 Month

24.73%

decreased by 0.26%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 10, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 38 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5937
7.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0983
10.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8838
88.07***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0050
4.16***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days