iShares MSCI Australia ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
13.79%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
14.17%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
15.25%
increased by 1.20%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6941 | 6.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1053 | 6.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8518 | 46.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1065 | -5.38*** |
| γ2 | 0.1818 | 6.24*** |
| γ3 | -0.1379 | -5.55*** |
| γ4 | 0.0887 | 3.89*** |
| γ5 | -0.0087 | -0.41 |
| γ6 | -0.0596 | -1.79* |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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