V-Lab
iShares MSCI France ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
14.35%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
14.49%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Month
14.93%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0880 | 5.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1118 | 8.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8546 | 61.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0303 | -1.84* |
| γ2 | 0.0677 | 2.84*** |
| γ3 | -0.0851 | -5.24*** |
| γ4 | 0.0946 | 5.22*** |
| γ5 | -0.0922 | -3.66*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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