Skip to main content
V-Lab

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

26.09%

decreased by 1.15%

1 Week

25.82%

decreased by 1.42%

1 Month

24.90%

decreased by 2.34%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6383
5.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1019
8.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8683
66.44***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0419
-3.32***
γ20.0604
3.16***
γ3-0.0254
-1.47

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

23 days