V-Lab
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
26.09%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Week
25.82%
decreased by 1.42%
1 Month
24.90%
decreased by 2.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6383 | 5.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1019 | 8.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8683 | 66.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0419 | -3.32*** |
| γ2 | 0.0604 | 3.16*** |
| γ3 | -0.0254 | -1.47 |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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