iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
32.70%
decreased by 2.11%
1 Week
32.37%
decreased by 2.44%
1 Month
31.25%
decreased by 3.56%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 184% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0178 | 9.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1613 | 34.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9805 | 965.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0773 | -19.32*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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