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iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

20.52%

increased by 3.55%

1 Week

20.73%

increased by 3.76%

1 Month

21.42%

increased by 4.45%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.61) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0254
2.20**
αARCH0.0900
8.73***
βGARCH0.8852
76.92***
γleverage0.6101
5.57***

0.975

Persistence

28d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0254
2.20**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0900
8.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8852
76.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6101
5.57***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days