V-Lab
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
20.52%
increased by 3.55%
1 Week
20.73%
increased by 3.76%
1 Month
21.42%
increased by 4.45%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.61) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0254 | 2.20** |
| αARCH | 0.0900 | 8.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8852 | 76.92*** |
| γleverage | 0.6101 | 5.57*** |
0.975
Persistence28d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0254 | 2.20** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0900 | 8.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8852 | 76.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6101 | 5.57*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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