V-Lab
iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
19.52%
increased by 1.28%
1 Week
19.76%
increased by 1.52%
1 Month
20.60%
increased by 2.36%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.73) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0020 | 0.18 |
| αARCH | 0.0850 | 9.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8963 | 109.50*** |
| γleverage | 0.7313 | 6.49*** |
0.981
Persistence37d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0020 | 0.18 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0850 | 9.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8963 | 109.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7313 | 6.49*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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