V-Lab
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
22.14%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
22.30%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
22.88%
increased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.58) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0155 | 7.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0695 | 33.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9179 | 428.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5797 | 24.06*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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