State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
15.00%
increased by 2.44%
1 Week
15.52%
increased by 2.96%
1 Month
17.20%
increased by 4.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.70) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1077 | 38.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8693 | 299.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7014 | 29.14*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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