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V-Lab

State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

15.00%

increased by 2.44%

1 Week

15.52%

increased by 2.96%

1 Month

17.20%

increased by 4.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.70) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1077
38.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8693
299.54***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.7014
29.14***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days