Skip to main content
V-Lab

State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

20.12%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Week

20.24%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Month

20.67%

decreased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.69) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0013
0.33
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0775
37.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9050
370.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6865
18.61***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

39 days