State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
20.12%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Week
20.24%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
20.67%
decreased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.69) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0013 | 0.33 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0775 | 37.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9050 | 370.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6865 | 18.61*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
39 days
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