V-Lab
iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
24.58%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Week
25.32%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
27.61%
increased by 2.02%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.03) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0624 | 1.74* |
| αARCH | 0.0748 | 7.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8971 | 75.35*** |
| γleverage | 1.0322 | 4.72*** |
0.972
Persistence24d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0624 | 1.74* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0748 | 7.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8971 | 75.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0322 | 4.72*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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