iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
28.25%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
28.40%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
28.97%
increased by 0.62%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2000 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 99% more than positive returns
μ
AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~84 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 99% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0433 | 2.03** |
| αARCH | 0.0624 | 2.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8986 | 42.00*** |
| γleverage | 0.0615 | 2.22** |
0.992
Persistence84d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0433 | 2.03** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0624 | 2.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8986 | 42.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0615 | 2.22** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
84 days
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