V-Lab
iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
24.74%
increased by 1.58%
1 Week
24.97%
increased by 1.81%
1 Month
25.83%
increased by 2.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 99% more than positive returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0430 | 8.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0623 | 11.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8986 | 167.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0618 | 8.90*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
84 days
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