V-Lab
iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
23.85%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Week
24.22%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
25.52%
increased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0546 | 8.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0652 | 28.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9874 | 597.69*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.7065 | 3.19*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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