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iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

30.06%

increased by 0.17%

1 Week

30.23%

increased by 0.34%

1 Month

30.84%

increased by 0.95%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 14, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 57 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 57 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 57-day half-lifev = 9.95 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run5.3360
1.84*
αscore0.0677
6.92***
βpersistence0.9880
130.93***
νDF9.9533
0.73

0.988

Persistence

57d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

5.3360
1.84*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0677
6.92***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9880
130.93***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.9533
0.73

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

57 days