iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
30.06%
increased by 0.17%
1 Week
30.23%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
30.84%
increased by 0.95%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 57 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 57 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 57-day half-lifev = 9.95 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 5.3360 | 1.84* |
| αscore | 0.0677 | 6.92*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9880 | 130.93*** |
| νDF | 9.9533 | 0.73 |
0.988
Persistence57d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 5.3360 | 1.84* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0677 | 6.92*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9880 | 130.93*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.9533 | 0.73 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
57 days
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