iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
24.71%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
25.05%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Month
26.26%
increased by 0.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0858 | 8.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0659 | 28.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9873 | 591.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.5836 | 3.33*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
Other iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs