Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

24.57%

increased by 0.65%

1 Week

24.91%

increased by 0.99%

1 Month

26.09%

increased by 2.17%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 14, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 9.69 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0373
2.16**
αARCH0.0649
7.14***
βGARCH0.9875
149.80***
νDF9.6863
0.80

0.987

Persistence

55d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0373
2.16**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0649
7.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9875
149.80***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.6863
0.80

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

55 days