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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

23.85%

decreased by 0.76%

1 Week

24.22%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Month

25.52%

increased by 0.91%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 14, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0546
8.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0652
28.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9874
597.69***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.7065
3.19***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

55 days