V-Lab
iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
30.37%
increased by 1.85%
1 Week
30.51%
increased by 1.99%
1 Month
31.07%
increased by 2.55%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 123 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~123 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0384 | 0.87 |
| αARCH | 0.0990 | 4.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8953 | 40.02*** |
0.994
Persistence123d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0384 | 0.87 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0990 | 4.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8953 | 40.02*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
123 days
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