V-Lab
Invesco DB Oil Fund MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
47.09%
increased by 3.61%
1 Week
47.13%
increased by 3.65%
1 Month
47.27%
increased by 3.79%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0065 | 6.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1301 | 41.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8699 | 340.73*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
Other Invesco DB Oil Fund Analyses
Other MEM Analyses on ETFs