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V-Lab

Invesco DB Oil Fund MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

47.09%

increased by 3.61%

1 Week

47.13%

increased by 3.65%

1 Month

47.27%

increased by 3.79%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Oil Fund MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0065
6.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1301
41.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8699
340.73***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-