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V-Lab

Invesco DB Oil Fund APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

58.20%

decreased by 3.84%

1 Week

57.58%

decreased by 4.46%

1 Month

55.33%

decreased by 6.71%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Oil Fund APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 99% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.35 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0466
18.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0993
23.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9007
240.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2503
8.49***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.3465
26.72***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

45 days