V-Lab
Invesco DB Oil Fund APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
58.20%
decreased by 3.84%
1 Week
57.58%
decreased by 4.46%
1 Month
55.33%
decreased by 6.71%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 99% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.35 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0466 | 18.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0993 | 23.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9007 | 240.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2503 | 8.49*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3465 | 26.72*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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