V-Lab
Invesco DB Oil Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
50.79%
decreased by 1.62%
1 Week
50.74%
decreased by 1.67%
1 Month
50.56%
decreased by 1.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9570 | 4.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0970 | 7.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8952 | 67.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0018 | -1.78* |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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