V-Lab
Vaneck Emerging Market B ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
4.87%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
4.87%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
4.87%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2867 | 3.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8359 | 0.62 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 51.2552 | 4.70*** |
| γ2 | -79.5157 | -5.31*** |
| γ3 | 36.7203 | 5.28*** |
Persistence:
0.836
Half-life:
4 days
Other Vaneck Emerging Market B ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs