V-Lab
State Street SPDR Portfolio Aggregate Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
3.95%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
3.98%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
4.06%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7942 | 4.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0917 | 5.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8573 | 40.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.3970 | -2.24** |
| γ2 | 0.5193 | 2.04** |
| γ3 | -0.0177 | -0.13 |
| γ4 | -0.2335 | -2.11** |
| γ5 | 0.1762 | 1.74* |
| γ6 | 0.1610 | 1.50 |
| γ7 | -0.5406 | -4.52*** |
| γ8 | 0.4653 | 5.32*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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