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V-Lab

State Street SPDR Portfolio Aggregate Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

3.92%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Week

3.95%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

4.05%

increased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR Portfolio Aggregate Bond ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 30, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 56% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0009
16.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0655
14.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9081
322.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0368
4.14***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

86 days