V-Lab
State Street SPDR Portfolio Aggregate Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
3.92%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
3.95%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
4.05%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 56% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0009 | 16.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0655 | 14.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9081 | 322.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0368 | 4.14*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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