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iShares Select U.S. REIT ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

13.91%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Week

14.20%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Month

15.21%

increased by 0.80%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC

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graph of iShares Select U.S. REIT ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 2, 2001 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 158% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 158% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0276
5.29***
αARCH0.0549
4.18***
βGARCH0.8873
84.64***
γleverage0.0865
3.22***

0.985

Persistence

47d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0276
5.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0549
4.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8873
84.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0865
3.22***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days