iShares Select U.S. REIT ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.89%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
16.10%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
16.83%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 2, 2001 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 160% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0278 | 21.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0542 | 16.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8879 | 339.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0866 | 12.84*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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