iShares Select U.S. REIT ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
15.16%
increased by 0.81%
1 Week
15.39%
increased by 1.04%
1 Month
16.21%
increased by 1.86%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 2, 2001 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 158% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 158% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0276 | 5.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.0547 | 4.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8875 | 84.82*** |
| γleverage | 0.0866 | 3.24*** |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0276 | 5.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0547 | 4.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8875 | 84.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0866 | 3.24*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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