V-Lab
iShares Select U.S. REIT ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
14.92%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
15.23%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
16.32%
increased by 1.21%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 2, 2001 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 49 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6918 | 7.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1074 | 9.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8785 | 76.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0005 | -1.68* |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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