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V-Lab

iShares Semiconductor ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026

1 Day

58.51%

increased by 2.73%

1 Week

57.90%

increased by 2.12%

1 Month

55.68%

decreased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares Semiconductor ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 13, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 39 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6796
7.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0742
8.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9083
92.12***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0156
4.88***
γ2-0.0194
-4.76***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

39 days