iShares Semiconductor ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
38.55%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Week
38.50%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Month
38.33%
decreased by 1.02%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2001 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 39 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6735 | 7.76*** |
| αARCH | 0.0741 | 8.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9081 | 93.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0155 | 4.99*** |
| γ2 | -0.0193 | -4.88*** |
0.982
Persistence39d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6735 | 7.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0741 | 8.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9081 | 93.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0155 | 4.99*** |
| γ2 | -0.0193 | -4.88*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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