V-Lab
iShares Semiconductor ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
58.51%
increased by 2.73%
1 Week
57.90%
increased by 2.12%
1 Month
55.68%
decreased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 39 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6796 | 7.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0742 | 8.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9083 | 92.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0156 | 4.88*** |
| γ2 | -0.0194 | -4.76*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
39 days
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