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V-Lab
V-Lab

iShares Semiconductor ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

41.26%

decreased by 1.73%

1 Week

41.11%

decreased by 1.88%

1 Month

40.59%

decreased by 2.40%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares Semiconductor ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 13, 2001 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 38 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.6773
7.75***
αARCH0.0747
8.97***
βGARCH0.9072
92.18***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0155
4.95***
γ2-0.0193
-4.83***

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6773
7.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0747
8.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9072
92.18***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0155
4.95***
γ2-0.0193
-4.83***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days