V-Lab
iShares Semiconductor ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
37.82%
decreased by 1.17%
1 Week
37.80%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Month
37.71%
decreased by 1.28%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2001 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 39 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6735 | 7.74*** |
| αARCH | 0.0741 | 8.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9081 | 92.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0155 | 4.96*** |
| γ2 | -0.0193 | -4.84*** |
0.982
Persistence39d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6735 | 7.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0741 | 8.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9081 | 92.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0155 | 4.96*** |
| γ2 | -0.0193 | -4.84*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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