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iShares Semiconductor ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

37.82%

decreased by 1.17%

1 Week

37.80%

decreased by 1.19%

1 Month

37.71%

decreased by 1.28%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC

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graph of iShares Semiconductor ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 13, 2001 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 39 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.6735
7.74***
αARCH0.0741
8.95***
βGARCH0.9081
92.99***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0155
4.96***
γ2-0.0193
-4.84***

0.982

Persistence

39d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6735
7.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0741
8.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9081
92.99***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0155
4.96***
γ2-0.0193
-4.84***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

39 days