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iShares Semiconductor ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

153.25%

increased by 2.03%

1 Week

163.66%

increased by 12.44%

1 Month

198.51%

increased by 47.29%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares Semiconductor ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 13, 2001 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~101 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2598
4.28***
αARCH0.1080
5.59***
βGARCH0.8852
42.31***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.3800
-2.07**
γ20.5947
2.09**
γ3-0.2422
-1.19
γ4-0.0762
-0.42
γ50.2300
1.05
γ6-0.1808
-0.73
γ70.1359
0.54
γ8-1.7904
-1.57
γ95.2112
1.68*
γ10-5.3469
-1.73*

0.993

Persistence

101d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2598
4.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1080
5.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8852
42.31***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.3800
-2.07**
γ20.5947
2.09**
γ3-0.2422
-1.19
γ4-0.0762
-0.42
γ50.2300
1.05
γ6-0.1808
-0.73
γ70.1359
0.54
γ8-1.7904
-1.57
γ95.2112
1.68*
γ10-5.3469
-1.73*

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

101 days