iShares Semiconductor ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
153.25%
increased by 2.03%
1 Week
163.66%
increased by 12.44%
1 Month
198.51%
increased by 47.29%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2001 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~101 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2598 | 4.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.1080 | 5.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8852 | 42.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.3800 | -2.07** |
| γ2 | 0.5947 | 2.09** |
| γ3 | -0.2422 | -1.19 |
| γ4 | -0.0762 | -0.42 |
| γ5 | 0.2300 | 1.05 |
| γ6 | -0.1808 | -0.73 |
| γ7 | 0.1359 | 0.54 |
| γ8 | -1.7904 | -1.57 |
| γ9 | 5.2112 | 1.68* |
| γ10 | -5.3469 | -1.73* |
0.993
Persistence101d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2598 | 4.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1080 | 5.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8852 | 42.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.3800 | -2.07** |
| γ2 | 0.5947 | 2.09** |
| γ3 | -0.2422 | -1.19 |
| γ4 | -0.0762 | -0.42 |
| γ5 | 0.2300 | 1.05 |
| γ6 | -0.1808 | -0.73 |
| γ7 | 0.1359 | 0.54 |
| γ8 | -1.7904 | -1.57 |
| γ9 | 5.2112 | 1.68* |
| γ10 | -5.3469 | -1.73* |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
101 days
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